Read about an outbreak in a non-scientific article
Begin to look for disease details that can turn into mathematical ideas
Notice the goals and style of writing in a news or popular culture article on an outbreak, and think about how these may be different in a scientific journal article
Prioritize, and build toward a habit of, full-class discussion
Disease outbreaks have been a topic of widespread discussion for a very long time. In this course, we will discuss the scientific study of outbreaks, data sets collected and curated by government officials, and policy ideas for improving public health outcomes. To begin, however, we examine writing in news and popular culture articles about diseases, starting in Exploration 1.1.
Exploration1.1.Reading about Disease in the News and Popular Media.
CNN is a television station and an online news source. People magazine and the corresponding website people.com center on “celebrity news and human-interest stories”. 1
While reading each article, think through the answers to as many of the following questions as you can.
What illness is involved?
How does it spread?
How quickly does it proceed? Consider incubation time, meaning the length of time from when a person is first infected with the virus until the time when the person shows symptoms. Also include length of sickness, as well as any other stages of the illness that seem important.
Is it more prominent in some parts of the world than others?
What does the article say about vaccines, quarantines, isolation, testing, or other approaches to managing this illness?
What mathematical concepts can you find in your article?
The question about mathematical concepts is very open-ended. List any ideas that seem to make sense to you.
Section1.1Possible Discussion Themes
Exploration 1.1 is very open-ended. The goal of this exploration is to begin discussing outbreaks as they appear in news and popular culture writing. There is no hidden “right answer” to find.
For many of the questions in part (b) of Exploration 1.1, you may find information in the articles and/or seek additional information. The question about mathematical concepts could mean many things, including but not limited to: numbers of recent cases, lengths of time of the stages of disease, historical data about when more or fewer people have been ill in past years, or percentages of people vaccinated.
There are many possible themes that may arise during discussion. Yours may center on the questions in part (b) of Exploration 1.1. Or, you may come up with yet others, and this is wonderful!
Section1.2Follow Up By Seeking More Precise Data
For these and other diseases or outbreaks we may read about, we can add to our knowledge of underlying disease biology by gathering additional data. We will find, when modeling diseases, that it can help to know the lengths of time for each disease stage, such as incubation period, how long a person is typically sick, and how long any immunity to the disease lasts. Vaccine data is also helpful, including whether a vaccine exists at all, how effective the vaccine is on average, and what percentage of people are vaccinated against a particular disease. Some of the data we collect may depend on time or place: vaccines may be newer, or different percentages of people may be vaccinated in different locations.
Not every disease is presented in an identical manner on the CDC’s web pages, but there are typically page titles including the words “Transmission” or “How It Spreads” that help us, as well as page titles including the word “Symptoms”. These pages contain lots of information about how diseases spread and how long each stage takes. Such information helps us build our models.
Activity1.2.
Take a look at the CDC’s online information pages for measles. Putting together the information on these pages, construct a timeline of measles contagion in a single person, starting at the time the person is first infected. Include the following, and include whatever other information appears important.
How long does it typically take for a person to begin being contagious? Some online information may refer to this as being infectious.
How long is the total time period from when a person begins being contagious to when they no longer are contagious?
How does contagion overlap, or not overlap, with when a person has the typical measles rash?
It is likely, for most diseases, that these timelines will involve ranges of time such as “3 to 5 days” rather than more specific amounts of time such as “4 days”. Time ranges will be helpful to us as we fine-tune our models.
For Further Thought1.3For Further Thought
1.
Look up the lengths of time for key phases of how measles unfolds. Include the length of time of any incubation period, meaning the length of time from when a person is first infected with the virus until the time when the person shows symptoms. Also include how long a person is contagious (also referred to as infectious) with measles. There may be additional disease phases to include. Use official sources, as described in Section 1.2. Cite your sources, including links to any web pages, the title of each web page used, the name of the government agency or other publisher of each web page, and the date you most recently accessed the web page.
2.
Look up the lengths of time for key phases of how RSV (respiratory syncytial virus) unfolds. Include the length of time of any incubation period, meaning the length of time from when a person is first infected with the virus until the time when the person shows symptoms. Also include how long a person is contagious (also referred to as infectious) with RSV. There may be additional disease phases to include. Use official sources, as described in Section 1.2. Cite your sources, including links to any web pages, the title of each web page used, the name of the government agency or other publisher of each web page, and the date you most recently accessed the web page.
3.
Look up additional information about measles and RSV. How does each spread? What are governmental recommendations for people who think they may have measles or RSV? And so on: read more about each disease, and write several pieces of information that you find interesting. Does anything you find surprise you? Cite your sources, including links to any web pages, the title of each web page used, the name of the government agency or other publisher of each web page, and the date you most recently accessed the web page.
